Designing effective Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) for lake ecosystem restoration and management requires a deep understanding of the long-term dynamics of coupled social–ecological systems (SES). In the Anthropocene, these systems are increasingly shaped by complex feedbacks, abrupt transitions, and historical legacies that challenge conventional management frameworks.
In this study, we apply an evolutionary framework to unravel the transient dynamics of a densely populated and historically modified SES, the Yangtze River Delta region in China. Integrating multidecadal socioeconomic data, paleoenvironmental records, and sedimentary ancient DNA from lake sediments, we identify two major social-ecological transitions over the past several centuries. The first transition, beginning in the 1950s, marks a shift from a loosely coupled and ecologically resilient regime to one characterized by intensified human-environment interactions, crossing ecological tipping points and triggering rapid degradation, including soil erosion and eutrophication. The second transition, around the 2000s, reveals a partial decoupling of economic growth from ecological decline, suggesting the emergence of more adaptive governance and sustainable trajectories.
These insights provide a unique empirical foundation for advancing NbS in lake regions by:
1)recognizing the historical baselines and legacies shaping current ecosystem states
2)identifying windows of opportunity for systemic reconfiguration
3)highlighting the importance of long-term resilience thinking in NbS planning
Our findings emphasize that robust NbS must be embedded within a coevolutionary understanding of SES dynamics—accounting for both ecological processes and socio-political contexts across time. Such integrative approaches are vital for ensuring that NbS are not only technically sound but also socially adaptive and ecologically resilient.